Nevertheless, predictions, beginning with the first advisory regarding Hurricane Alicia are issued with every advisory.
Predicting something as unstable and unpredictable as a hurricane is naturally hard for the National Weather Service. The small group of scholars who assembled the working prediction system did not obviously expect such a storm as Alicia.
Neumann and Pelissier write “landfall forecasts are likely to be more accurate and accompanied by less overwarning around the Gulf of Mexico than elsewhere in the United States” (An Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast Errors, 1970-1979 1981). Considerations were made to every variable of the storm, including its placement in the ocean, and angle of the hurricane path. Seldom does a year go by in the Monthly Weather Review during the 1970’s and early 1980’s without Neumann and Pelissier publishing a scholarly paper discussing the ins and outs of how a landfall prediction system could be achieved, what would be its pros and cons, and what it would mean for hurricane tracking and forecasting as a whole, and also the social impact. Forecasts taken at the 24 hour mark and studied, according to Neumann in “Trends in Forecasting the Tracks of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones”, go all the way back to 1954 (2). The Monthly Weather Review, a journal published by the American Meteorological Society, had articles discussing what methods could be used for landfall prediction at least a decade before Alicia, if not more. The prediction system of using meteorological data to guess landfalls was in the minds of meteorologists for at least a decade before the system debuted with Alicia. The landfall prediction system, which was decades in the making but got its start with Alicia, significantly saved lives and the benefits of testing it during this Texas storm has made it possible to better predict where hurricanes will land in the future, possibly saving millions of lives. Alicia is significant in her own right due to strength, destruction, and impact, but to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s division called the National Weather Service, and their division of the National Hurricane Center, Alicia was a chance to test out their new landfall prediction system. Hurricane Alicia struck the area on the early morning of August 18, around 2AM. The residents, however, over the next five days, watched and waited as the Gulf of Mexico churned out one of the greatest weather-related disasters to ever hit the Houston/Galveston area. On August 13, the residents of Houston, Texas and the surrounding areas had no idea their lives were going to be significantly impacted in the next five days. The middle of August, 1983, was no different except this time, The Big One really was coming. Texans plan their lives around possible hurricanes, planning their weddings, vacations, and family events on the very real fact that a hurricane may decide to interrupt their good time.
Every summer, a flurry of maps, supply lists, and a list of twenty-six names remind Texans that the season is upon them, and The Big One could be coming this year. Young Texan schoolchildren learn about the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 in their classes they hear their grandparents discuss Hurricane Carla. Hurricanes will always be a way of life for many Texans.
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